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Oil prices are off to a strong start this week, as traders are pushing prices higher in reaction to multiple concerns stemming out of the Middle East.
The first factor that is weighing on traders mind’s is the Turkish invasion to Iraq. Tension between Turkey and the Kurds in Northern Iraq is nothing new to the area (and violence between the two goes all the way back to 1984), but the current activity is the first confirmed operation by Turkey since the United Says began its Iraqi campaign in 2003.
Over the weekend, Turkey announced that one of its helicopters had gone down in Northern Iraq, killing 8 Turkish soldiers. In reaction to that news, Turkey stepped up its force by firing in excess of 40 salvos of artillery into the territory.
In all, there have been at least 112 confirmed Kurdish rebel deaths since just last Thursday, and it seems as though things are not going to be coming to an end anytime soon. As violence continues, traders will continue to worry about any supply disruptions that may result from the action.
Iraq is a massive supplier of oil to Europe, and Turkey serves as a crucial oil and gasoline hub into the region. Hopefully, the two sides will reach some sort of peace soon, but for now the action only seems to be escalating. The Iraqi government has made its plea to Turkey to pull out, but so far those pleas are falling on deaf ears.
So where is America in all of this? America has been aiding Turkey on this one. Turkey is its NATO ally, and the U.S. has been providing Turkey with real time intelligence on the area. As you can envision, the Kurds are rather disappointed that the U.S. is helping Turkey. This may also undermine any progress that America has been making in the northern territory of the country.
There are also more concerns coming out of Iran. The U.S. and Iran have been in constant debate for the past several years over Iran’s nuclear program. The U.S. insists that the country is trying to build nuclear weapons, while Iran insists that it is only pursuing nuclear energy. Believe what you’ll, but the tensions have continued to build, and led to numerous sanctions against the massive oil producer country.
Over this past weekend, the Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, made it clear that he was not happy with all of the sanctions that were being imposed on his country, and said that his country would take unspecified “decisive reciprocal measures” against nations that decided to imposed any additional sanctions against Iran.
Is this just more talk and posturing by Iran, or has the country finally stated enough is enough? Who really knows, but one thing is for sure, trouble out of Iran could definitely lead to supply disruptions, so traders will continue to push prices higher just based on the possibility that things could take a turn for the worse in the country.
At the present time, the country is under two different sets of U.N. sanctions, and it is thought that a third set of sanctions could be put in place shortly, despite a recent report from the International Atomic Energy Bureau (IAEA), which said that it has found no evidence in Iran of a weapons program and that U.S. allegations to the contrary are unsubstantiated.
So, definitely a couple of pretty huge things going on over in the never boring Middle East. As I find out more information on these events, I will keep you posted.
What are your thoughts on Iran? Do you trust the IAEA and Iranian government that the country’s nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, or are you skeptical and agree with the idea that the country is probably pursuing weapons of mass destruction?
Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the on the internet investment advisory service Investor’s Observer.
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