Josh Fink brings us a CNN story discussing evidence found by researchers which indicates that humans came close to extinction roughly 70,000 years ago. A similar study by Stanford scientists suggests that droughts reduced the population to as few as 2,000 humans, who were scattered in small, isolated groups. Quoting: “‘This study illustrates the astounding power of genetics to reveal insights into some of the key events in our species’ history,’ stated Spencer Wells, National Geographic Society explorer in residence. ‘Tiny bands of early humans, forced apart by harsh environmental conditions, coming back from the brink to reunite and populate the world. Truly an epic drama, written in our DNA.’”

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An anonymous reader writes “The bill to ban genetic discrimination in employment or insurance coverage is moving forward. Is this the death knell of private insurance? I think private health insurance is pretty much incompatible with genetic testing (GT) for disease predisposition, if said testing turns out to be of any use whatsoever. The great strength of GT is that it will (as technology improves) take a lot of the uncertainty out of disease prediction. But that uncertainty is what insurance is based on. If discrimination is granted, the person with the bad genes is out of luck because no one would insure them. However, if that isn’t granted, the companies are in trouble. If I know I’m likely to get a certain condition, I’ll stock up on ‘insurance’ for it. The only solution I have the ability to see is single-payer universal coverage along the lines of the Canadian model, where everyone pays, and no one (insurer or patient) can game the system based on advance knowledge of the outcomes. Any other ideas? This bill has been in the works for a while.”

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Marion Jones’ teammates begin fundraising defense - San Diego Union-Tribune
COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. – Marion Jones’ relay partners are raising money to pay legal fees in the fight to retain the 2000 Olympic medals they’ve been ordered to return. Jones teamed with Jearl-Miles Clark, Monique Hennagan, LaTasha Colander

Japan minister urges US public bailout - BusinessWeek
Likening the U.S. credit crisis to a broken bathtub draining water, Japan’s financial services minister urged Washington on Wednesday to inject public money to repair the problem before it gets worse. Sounding nearly alarmist in an interview with The

Suburban Philadelphia bank sues robbery suspect - Philadelphia Inquirer
DOYLESTOWN, Pa. - A bank is suing the man charged in a Dec. 26 robbery in which he is accused of stealing $38,000. Huntingdon Valley Bank is seeking the stolen money plus nearly $1,100 for lost employee wages, management hours and other costs

Roast coffee at home with hot-air corn popper - La Crosse Tribune
Given the American love affair with coffee, it’s surprising more people don’t roast their own beans at home. Not only does home roasting ensure the freshest, most splendid cup of coffee, it’s also a money saver and takes just minutes to prepare

Less money for Pa. college grants, PHEAA says - Philadelphia Inquirer
HARRISBURG, Pa. - It looks like there will be less state allow money for Pennsylvania college students next year. The board of the state’s student loan agency voted Thursday to cut the money it contributes to the grants. Originally, the Pennsylvania

Spokane police search for apologetic robber - Seattle Times
SPOKANE — Police are searching for a man who entered a convenience store early Wednesday with a gun and cleaned out a cash register. A clerk at the Zip Trip states the man stated he was sorry for having to rob the store, but he needed the money

Bail set for man wanted in Vegas shooting, extortion case - Seattle Post Intelligencer
KENT, Wash. — A man accused of shooting three people outside a Las Vegas strip club and then extorting money from professional football player Adam “Pacman” Jones has been ordered held on $1 million bail. Arvin Kenti Edwards, of Renton, declined to

Many Mexicans see oil as last frontier against US invasion - Philadelphia Inquirer
MEXICO CITY - Even with oil prices at record highs, Mexico’s state-run oil company is managing to lose money. But a presidential plan to repair Petroleos Mexicanos by inviting foreign help is stirring deep-seated emotions over sovereignty , and causing

Indonesia says bird flu virus-sharing battle not about money - International Herald Tribune
JAKARTA, Indonesia : Indonesia does not want money for its bird flu virus samples — it wants governments and pharmaceutical companies to come up with a mechanism that will ensure future pandemic vaccines are accessible to developing nations. That

Legislature restores some Road Ranger funding - Herald Tribune
TALLAHASSEE — Florida’s Road Rangers will live to ride another year. Legislative budget negotiators agreed Wednesday to restore about half of the money they’d eliminated from the state budget for the Rangers, who help stranded motorists and clear

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Screaming Cactus writes “A team of researchers led by Boston University’s Alan Marscher have apparently worked out the physics behind the particle streams emanating from many black holes. According to the researchers, ‘twisted, coiled magnetic fields are propelling the material outward.’ By watching an ‘unprecedented view’ of a black hole in the process of expelling mass, they were able to confirm their theory, predicting where and when bursts of energy would be detected.”

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Filed under: Major movement, International markets, Earnings reports, Good news, Products and services, Ford Motor (F)

American auto maker Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) reported its first quarter earnings this morning, and surprised Wall Street by posting a profit during the quarter.

Going into today’s earnings announcement, analysts had been anticipating the company to show a loss of 16 cents per share, but the nation’s second largest auto maker surprised everyone by earning $100 million, or 5 cents per share, during the quarter. This is a nice rebound from the same period last year when the struggling auto maker had a loss of $282 million, or 15 cents a share.

The good news is that the company had a great performance in its European and South American markets. The bad news is that automobile and truck sales slumped once again in the weak U.S. market, injured by the current economic slowdown.

Revenue was down a bit in the quarter, at $39.4 billion, below the same period last year when revenues were $43 billion. This was mainly a reaction to the company’s sale of its Jaguar-Land Rover and Aston Martin units. The company stated that excluding the sale, its revenues would have actually been up slightly in the quarter.

The company’s results from its main American market were in the red again, although not almost as bad as the same period last year. During the quarter, the company had a $45 million pretax loss in the United States. While this looks bad on the surface, consider that during the company’s first quarter last year the company showed a loss of $613 million.

In premarket trading, investors have pushed the stock up a little over 6% this morning.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the on the web investment advisory service Investor’s Observer.

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Filed under: Products and services, Boeing Co (BA), Politics, Northrop Grumman (NOC)

Despite excellent earnings from Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) yesterday, a bit of a shadow still hangs over the company. That’s because in February the Air Force awarded a $100 billion contract for in-flight refueling craft — known as tankers — to EADS’s Airbus and Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC). Boeing is currently challenging this award. But an interview I did for my book on Boeing suggests that Boeing won’t win this contract because George W. Bush and John McCain want to award the contract to Bush’s new friends: France’s Nicolas Sarkozy and Germany’s Angela Merkel.

I got this theory from a veteran Wall Street analyst who covers the aircraft industry. He recommended that Boeing lost the Tanker bid because John McCain — who is ranking member on the Senate Armed Services Committee — had the Air Force change the specifications for the tanker bid so Airbus and Northrop would be able to field a competitive bid. My source noted that the one problem with the change was that the Air Force didn’t inform Boeing about it.

After the bid was awarded to Airbus, it became clear that the original specifications had changed from a small, 767-sized craft to a medium-sized 777 one. During the review process, my source contends that Boeing asked the Air Force if the 767-sized craft was what it wanted. Boeing also told the Air Force that it would be happy to bid with a different model if the Air Force wanted. But the Air Force told Boeing that it still wanted the 767-sized craft.

My source also pointed out — as I posted last month — that McCain’s top finance staff members for his presidential run were lobbyists for Airbus. But my source mentioned that Airbus paid them hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. He also suggested that President Bush got involved in the decision. My source thinks that Bush awarded the contract to Airbus because he wanted to curry favor with Sarkozy and Merkel — both countries are part of Airbus.

My source believes that the Air Force will not split this contract between two vendors and that Boeing won’t win its appeal of the award. He stated that the impact of the lost contract isn’t likely to be significant over the next five years. The tanker would have added “only” $1 billion a year for the next five years and then $2.5 billion to $3 billion in the early 2010s.

But here’s the good news. He thinks that Boeing will deliver the 787 Dreamliner in the fourth quarter of 2009 and that starting then it will start to show annual earnings per share growth of 25% to 30%. This is a massive step up in growth which he attributes to Boeing’s $346 billion backlog. And without the 787 delays, which he thinks will cost Boeing $3 billion in penalty payments, Boeing’s 2009 earnings guidance would have been 20% higher.

Since Boeing trades at a relatively low P/E of 15.6, this analyst thinks the stock is a bargain. Even Bush and McCain can’t keep a good company down.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He is writing a book about Boeing and has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

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Filed under: Major movement, International markets, Earnings reports, Good news, Products and services, Ford Motor (F)

American auto maker Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) reported its first quarter earnings this morning, and surprised Wall Street by posting a profit during the quarter.

Going into today’s earnings announcement, analysts had been anticipating the company to show a loss of 16 cents per share, but the nation’s second largest auto maker surprised everyone by earning $100 million, or 5 cents per share, during the quarter. This is a nice rebound from the same period last year when the struggling auto maker had a loss of $282 million, or 15 cents a share.

The good news is that the company had a great performance in its European and South American markets. The bad news is that automobile and truck sales slumped once again in the weak U.S. market, injured by the current economic slowdown.

Revenue was down a bit in the quarter, at $39.4 billion, below the same period last year when revenues were $43 billion. This was mainly a reaction to the company’s sale of its Jaguar-Land Rover and Aston Martin units. The company stated that excluding the sale, its revenues would have actually been up slightly in the quarter.

The company’s results from its main American market were in the red again, even though not almost as bad as the same period last year. During the quarter, the company had a $45 million pretax loss in the United Says. While this looks bad on the surface, think about that during the company’s first quarter last year the company showed a loss of $613 million.

In premarket trading, investors have pushed the stock up a tiny over 6% this morning.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor’s Observer.

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Filed under: Products and services, Boeing Co (BA), Politics, Northrop Grumman (NOC)

Despite excellent earnings from Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) yesterday, a bit of a shadow still hangs over the company. That’s because in February the Air Force awarded a $100 billion contract for in-flight refueling craft — known as tankers — to EADS’s Airbus and Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC). Boeing is currently challenging this award. But an interview I did for my book on Boeing suggests that Boeing will not win this contract because George W. Bush and John McCain want to award the contract to Bush’s new friends: France’s Nicolas Sarkozy and Germany’s Angela Merkel.

I got this theory from a veteran Wall Street analyst who covers the aircraft industry. He suggested that Boeing lost the Tanker bid because John McCain — who is ranking member on the Senate Armed Services Committee — had the Air Force change the specifications for the tanker bid so Airbus and Northrop would be able to field a competitive bid. My source noted that the one problem with the change was that the Air Force did not inform Boeing about it.

After the bid was awarded to Airbus, it became clear that the original specifications had changed from a small, 767-sized craft to a medium-sized 777 one. During the review process, my source contends that Boeing asked the Air Force if the 767-sized craft was what it wanted. Boeing also told the Air Force that it would be happy to bid with a different model if the Air Force wanted. But the Air Force told Boeing that it still wanted the 767-sized craft.

My source also pointed out — as I posted last month — that McCain’s top finance staff members for his presidential run were lobbyists for Airbus. But my source mentioned that Airbus paid them hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. He also recommended that President Bush got involved in the decision. My source thinks that Bush awarded the contract to Airbus because he wanted to curry favor with Sarkozy and Merkel — both countries are part of Airbus.

My source believes that the Air Force won’t split this contract between two vendors and that Boeing won’t win its appeal of the award. He said that the impact of the lost contract isn’t apt to be significant over the next five years. The tanker would have added “only” $1 billion a year for the next five years and then $2.5 billion to $3 billion in the early 2010s.

But here’s the good news. He thinks that Boeing will deliver the 787 Dreamliner in the fourth quarter of 2009 and that starting then it will begin to show annual earnings per share growth of 25% to 30%. This is a large step up in growth which he attributes to Boeing’s $346 billion backlog. And without the 787 delays, which he thinks will cost Boeing $3 billion in penalty payments, Boeing’s 2009 earnings guidance would have been 20% higher.

Since Boeing trades at a relatively low P/E of 15.6, this analyst thinks the stock is a bargain. Even Bush and McCain can’t keep a good company down.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also instructs management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He’s writing a book about Boeing and has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

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Filed under: Earnings reports, Analyst reports, Products and services, Starbucks (SBUX), China

I must admit, that although I’m from Seattle and grew up with Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) in my backyard, I’m a bigger fan of Folgers coffee than I am of Starbucks. That being said, as an investor, I think it bears to take a long, hard look at Starbucks shares at these levels.

Its earnings report was lousy. As reported in Reuters: ” The company, which has been trying to revive business in the United Says, stated it expects first-quarter earnings per share of 15 cents. Wall Street analysts, on average, had been anticipating earnings of 21 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates. In the same period last year, Starbucks earned 19 cents a share.” Yikes. Forget about the fact that Starbucks missed by 6 cents per share. Year -over-year its EPS dropped by 4 cents.

So why be optimistic? With the stock trading down under $16, In think that it bears watching as a contrarian, turnaround story. I think that as part of Starbucks’ turnaround strategy, it comprehends the need to get back to basics and begin doing the things that made them successful. This plus the potential windfall that its China business could produce, makes this an interesting story for the future. I doubt that this is a stock that’s going to make a major move over the next month or two, but for investors interested in a turnaround story and with a bit of patience, Starbucks may just fill the bill.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer’s fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 4/24/08.

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Filed under: Bad news, Economic data, Housing, Recession

U.S. new home sales fell to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized pace of 526,000 in March 2008 - - a 17-year low, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Thursday. (pdf)

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected March 2008 new home sales to register a 580,000 annualized rate.

Sales have now declined for five consecutive months, and are down 36.6% in the last 12 months.

Meanwhile, inventories surged to an 11-month supply at the March 2008 sales rate, up from a 9.8-month supply in February. Inventories are at their highest level since 1981. A healthy housing market typically has a 3-4 month supply.

Also, February 2008 sales were revised down slightly, to 575,000 from the earlier released 590,000.

In addition, the median sales price of new houses sold in March 2008 was $227,600; the average sales price was $292,200. The median sales price has now decreased 13.3% in the past 12 months.

Sales fell in each U.S. region: declining 19.4% in the Northeast, 12.9% in the West, 12.5% in the Midwest, and 4.6% in the South.

‘Scary’ housing stats

Economist Peter Dawson called the March 2008 housing statistics, “scary.”

“These are scary numbers. With an 11-month supply of houses, you’re looking at a housing market that won’t start to recover until well into 2009, at ideal, which will be a major drag on the economy,” Dawson said. “It also obviously places more pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates.”

Dawson stated equally troubling is the U.S. median sales prices decline. “A 10% decline nationally over the past year says there’s a remarkable amount of weakness in the housing sector,” Dawson stated. “The last time it dropped more than 10% in one year nationally, I believe it was the Depression era [1930s]. Clearly, we’re going to need all hands on deck to turn this housing sector around. This is the worst housing slump I’ve ever experienced.”

Many economists and analysts anticipate new home sales to continue to decline through 2008, as home builders reduce construction, due to anemic U.S. economic growth, sluggish new household formation, and more-rigorous mortgage approval stipulations.

Some analysts also argue that the U.S. new home sector may incur a corrective period as long as two to three years - - lasting through perhaps the end of 2009 - - to compensate for speculative overbuilding in selected regions of the country during the housing boom.

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