Archive for May 3rd, 2008

OMNIpotusCOM writes “CNN is reporting an outbreak of Enterovirus 71 (or EV71), that has affected more than 3700 kids and killed over 20, is creating concern for the visitors and athletes expected for the Beijing Olympics in August. The virus can cause “poliolike paralysis” according to the article.”

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NotBornYesterday writes “On April 8, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited his country’s secretive nuclear enrichment plant at Natanz for a photo op. What came out of this visit is a series of pics which have caused a fair amount of interest among western scientists. Shown in the photos are not only some of the inner workings of the plant and current generation of enrichment centrifuges, but also key components to newer generations of more effective centrifuges. Analysts are ‘intrigued’ not only by the technical revelations in the pictures, but also because Iran’s Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar accompanied Ahmadinejad through the facility.”

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Roland Piquepaille writes “Networks are used to represent the structure of complex systems, including the Internet or social networks, but often these descriptions are biased or incomplete. Now, researchers at the Santa Fe Institute (SFI) have shown that it’s possible to extract automatically the hierarchical structure of networks. The researchers state their results ’suggest that hierarchy is a central organizing principle of complex networks, capable of offering insight into many network phenomena.’ They also think that their algorithms can be applied to almost every kind of networks, from biochemical networks (protein interaction networks, metabolic networks or genetic regulatory networks) to communities in social networks. But read more for additional references and some pictures about hierarchical networks and their applications.”

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Since last year’s summer movie preview featured mostly sequels and adaptations, this year’s preview has been expanded to include more than just potential “blockbusters.” The following is a chronological list of not only the most hyped film fare of the summer, but other noteworthy smaller entries, and a short commentary on each.

Robert Downey in Paramount Pictures Iron Man

5/2 - Iron Man, Viacom (NYSE: VIA)’s Paramount Pictures
The first of two huge Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) adaptations of the summer, the Robert Downey Jr. led Iron Man has been getting a ton of hype and critical acclaim. This is the second year that a comic book adaptation has kicked off the summer, following last year’s Spider-Man 3, which grossed over $150M over its opening weekend.

5/9 - Speed Racer, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX)’s Warner Bros.
Another big-budget adaptation of a generations-old cartoon. Last year’s Transformers was, to my surprise, a large success, so maybe Speed Racer, in the capable directing hands of the Wachowskis, can be as well.5/16 - The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS)
It does not look as if Disney has much faith in this franchise, as it was originally supposed to be a seven movie series (one for each book) and now the franchise looks to be over after three (the upcoming Voyage of the Dawn Treader). Of course, if Prince Caspian blows away expectations at the box office, all bets are off, and we might see all seven after all.

5/22 - Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Viacom’s Paramount Pictures
Following in Bruce Willis’s Die Hard shoes last summer, Harrison Ford is returning after a 19-year hiatus as everyone’s favorite archaeologist adventurer, Indiana Jones. The question isn’t whether this motion picture will be a success, it is whether it will be the biggest success of the summer.

Kristin Davis, Sarah Jessica Parker, Cynthia Nixon and Kim Cattrall in Sex And The City

5/30 - Sex and the City, Time Warner’s New Line Cinema
One of HBO’s most popular shows of the late ’90s, this movie definitely has a built-in audience. The only question is, after four years of not having their fix of Carrie Bradshaw, how many will go to the large screen to catch up.

6/6 - You Don’t Mess with the Zohan, Sony (NYSE: SNE)’s Sony Pictures
The latest low-brow Adam Sandler comedy. What else is there to say about a motion picture revolving around a secret agent who decides to become a hair stylist? How about this: Sandler’s last two comedies, Click and I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry, each grossed over $100M at the box office despite poor critical reviews.

6/6 - Kung Fu Panda, Dreamworks Animation (NYSE: DWA)
Even though Dreamworks plays second-fiddle to Pixar, it still sees its share of box office success, such as its Shrek franchise and the current Bee Movie. This quirky animated comedy, with voice talent including Jack Black and Jackie Chan, looks to be another solid addition to Dreamworks’ animated library.

6/13 - The Happening, News Corp (NYSE: NWS)’s 20th Century Fox
Writer/director M. Night Shymalan is looking to rebound after the 2006 flop Lady in the Water. The good news is that The Happening stars Mark Wahlberg, not too far removed from his The Departed Oscar nomination. The bad news is that The Happening is opening the same weekend as The Amazing Hulk.

6/13 - The Incredible Hulk, General Electric (NYSE: GE)’s Universal Photos
The second of this summer’s Marvel comic adaptations, The Astounding Hulk is a reboot of 2003 Ang Lee flop The Hulk. This time it is Ed Norton, as a writer and the title character, who will decide the fate of the green giant, and whether this time around it, like Iron Man, is worth a sequel.

6/20 - Get Smart, Time Warner’s Warner Bros.
A new take on an old TV classic, with Steve Carrell in a role that seems made for him. How well this movie does depends on advertisers’ ability to bring in moviegoers that don’t remember the original. As a side note, it would be hard for this film to be worse than the 1998 remake of The Avengers, which was based on a similar classic British television show.

A scene from Pixar Studios film Wall-E

6/27 - Wall-E, Disney’s Pixar
To give you an idea of the confidence Disney has in this Pixar car, the company is already building Wall-E robots. There still looks to be no end in sight for consecutive Pixar successes.

6/27 - Wanted, GE’s Universal Photos
Hardcore action fans are lamenting the end of the Bourne series as this summer rolls around. However, they’ll have this Angelina Jolie shoot ‘em up to look forward to, where Jolie’s character looks similar to the character she played in the very successful Mr. and Mrs. Smith.

7/2 - Hancock, Sony’s Sony Photos
The danger Sony took here with a new, unheard-of super hero in a market saturated with super-hero fare is offset by the surefire box office draw of Will Smith in the title role.

7/11 - Hellboy II: The Golden Army, GE’s Universal Pictures
The first Hellboy only grossed $59M at the box office — not a huge success considering the movie’s estimated budget of $66M. But the loyal Hellboy fan base made GE see it as sequel worthy. Now, with Guillermo del Toro directing, and a slightly bigger estimated budget of $72M, we will see.

7/18 - The Dark Knight, Time Warner’s Warner Bros.
DC comics’ massive entry this summer is the sequel to 2005’s Batman Begins, which grossed slightly over $200M at the box office. This much advertised sequel, which is also notable as Heath Ledger’s final film, might be able to top that.

7/18 - Mamma Mia, GE’s Universal Photos
This is another test to see if Broadway musicals can translate into profitability at the motion picture theater. Other recent attempts — Rent and Phantom of the Opera — failed, while 2002’s Chicago went on to win the Oscar and gross over $170M.

7/25 - The X-Files: I Want to Believe, News Corp’s 20th Century Fox
The original X-Files movie, released in 1998, when the X-Files television show was still relevant, was only a modest success. So the sequel, coming 10 years later, makes nearly no sense. Maybe what 20th Century Fox wants to believe is that this franchise can still make them money.

Seth Rogan and James Franco in Pineapple Express

8/8 - Pineapple Express, Sony’s Sony Photos
This is the latest brainchild of Judd Apatow, who also wrote The 40-Year-Old Virgin and Knocked Up. Is America tiring of his brand of humor yet, or can this modern day Mel Brooks keep the hits coming? I say Sony rides the Pineapple Express to the land of milk and honey.

8/8 - The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2, Time Warner’s Warner Bros.

The success of the Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants novels and the first feature film means this is nearly a surefire hit for the tween girl audience. However, there’s not much upside for any additional audience draw.

8/15 - Tropic Thunder, Viacom’s Dreamworks LLC
This action-comedy could be the most interesting and original idea of any movie this summer. The synopsis according to IMDB: “A group of actors shooting a big-budget war movie are forced to become the soldiers they’re portraying.” It features a star-studded ensemble cast including Ben Stiller, Jack Black, Robert Downey Jr., Nick Nolte and Tom Cruise. Dreamworks was also smart enough to wait until all the large franchise releases before opening Tropic Thunder.

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Reuters reports that German daily Die Welt quotes a customer letter saying that Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) just announced the fourth delay in delivering its 787 Dreamliner. It was originally scheduled for this month but if Die Welt is right about the fourth delay — which would affect deliveries scheduled for 2012 — the 787 would now be 27 months behind schedule. But Boeing denies the report.

The good news as of now is that none of the 55 customers who ordered 787s — creating a $151 billion backlog — have canceled. Last month the CourierPost reported that the three initial delays would cost Boeing $4 billion cancellation fees. No word on how much this fourth delay will add to that cost — if the report proves to be true.

But 2008 is turning out to be far worse year for aircraft orders than 2007 was. Both Boeing and Airbus have played down expectations for plane orders this year, after the record 2,754 orders between them last year. Most analysts are expecting about half that number this year.

However, Boeing denies the report of the fourth delay. According to Yvonne Leach, a spokeswoman in Seattle, “There has been no change since our announcement in April.” She added that, on average, delays would put deliveries about 20 months behind.

Is Leach right? We’ll find out someday. Meanwhile, Boeing CEO James McNerney can’t be happy about this latest report. I hope for Boeing’s sake that it’s the last.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also instructs management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He’s writing a book about Boeing and has no financial interest in its securities.

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