Filed under: Forecasts, Other issues, Employees, Oil, Housing
If one scrolls back into American history, one can detect a clear pattern of cycles or eras: periods of considerable economic expansion, followed by periods of less economic expansion. Periods of extensive public policy activity, followed by periods of less public policy activity. Periods of extensive suburban sprawl, followed by periods of less development.
As more and more Americans entertain the possibility that $4 per gallon gasoline, may, in the long-term, represent a price floor rather than a ceiling, one can detect the rumbles of a shift in housing preferences, so states economist Glen Langan.
“The 3-bedroom home with a back yard is still a goal. That’s part of the American dream. The home with a yard 30 or 40 miles from work, isn’t,” Langan said.
Case in point: the Denver metropolitan area. Suburban and exurban home prices in formerly preferred suburbs, are dropping more than in areas closer to the city center, The New York Times reported.
Denver will hardly be the only city affected, Langan stated. “Many cities that experienced a ‘long-commute’ boom or an exurbia boom during the low gas price area are vulnerable,” Langan stated. “It’s the 30-mile commute re-think.” Another example of a city prone to be hit hard is Atlanta.
Langan said long-commute locations still typically offer many advantages - - more space, a quieter life, good schools - - but now a major negative, commuting costs, will turn-off many potential home buyers.
“The mantra now is ‘good schools’ and ‘let’s see if we have the ability to find something that’s 15 miles closer,’ ” Langan said. “The high gas price era is forcing families and people to decrease commuting distances, so in that sense the era of the unlimited commute is over.”
Two other types of communities are apt to benefit during the new era: those with reliable mass transit systems and those with amenities closer together, he said.
“Towns and communities close to mass transits systems almost always had an advantage over those that weren’t close, but now that advantage will be magnified,” Langan said. “Also, more-compact, less-vast communities will have an advantage. People will gravitate toward communities where all their needs are closer together. A community where you have to drive seven miles to the mall, then drive five miles to the soccer or ball field, won’t be as desirable as communities where everything is closer together, other factors being equal.”
Entries (RSS)