Archive for July 13th, 2008

One man devotes his time and energy to raise money for Leukemia … - Roanoke Times


Roanoke Times

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Science News has a story of strange bedfellows. It seems that Antarctica was once adjacent to what’s now the American Southwest, some 800 million years ago. Earth’s continents then formed a supercontinent called Rodinia, predating Pangaea by some 550 million years. “…the ratios of neodymium isotopes in the ancient sediments in the Transantarctic Mountains are the same as those in what was then Laurentia, states Goodge. Also, the hafnium isotope ratios in the 1.44-billion-year-old zircons found in East Antarctica match those of the zircons found in the distinctive granites now found primarily in North America. Finally, the researchers note, the ratios of various isotopes and elements in a basketball-sized chunk of granite found in East Antarctica — a chunk ripped by a glacier from bedrock now smothered by thick ice, the team speculates — match those of granite found only in what was southwestern Laurentia, which this day is the American Southwest.”

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Science News has a story of strange bedfellows. It seems that Antarctica was once adjacent to what is now the American Southwest, some 800 million years ago. Earth’s continents then formed a supercontinent called Rodinia, predating Pangaea by some 550 million years. “…the ratios of neodymium isotopes in the ancient sediments in the Transantarctic Mountains are the same as those in what was then Laurentia, says Goodge. Also, the hafnium isotope ratios in the 1.44-billion-year-old zircons found in East Antarctica match those of the zircons found in the distinctive granites now found primarily in North America. Finally, the researchers note, the ratios of various isotopes and elements in a basketball-sized chunk of granite found in East Antarctica — a chunk ripped by a glacier from bedrock now smothered by thick ice, the team speculates — match those of granite found only in what was southwestern Laurentia, which today is the American Southwest.”

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NIckGorton writes “Dr. Michael DeBakey, the father of modern heart surgery, died this week at age 99. He was integral to the development of pretty much everything in modern cardiovascular surgery: bypass (heart-lung machines that made open-heart surgery possible for the first time), coronary artery bypass surgery (he did the first one ever), carotid endarterectomey (again he performed the first one), the development of Dacron graft blood vessels, and the development of MASH units. He was a consummate geek and numerous surgical instruments bear his name. He was also the first surgeon to videotape surgeries — in the 1960s. He was considered by the NEJM to be the single greatest surgeon alive until two days ago. In his career he performed over 50,000 heart surgeries and practiced medicine (though not surgery) until the day he died. In 2005 he underwent the Debakey procedure, which he pioneered, to treat the aortic dissection he suffered.”

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NIckGorton writes “Dr. Michael DeBakey, the dad of modern heart surgery, died this week at age 99. He was integral to the development of pretty much everything in modern cardiovascular surgery: bypass (heart-lung machines that made open-heart surgery possible for the first time), coronary artery bypass surgery (he did the first one ever), carotid endarterectomey (again he performed the first one), the development of Dacron graft blood vessels, and the development of MASH units. He was a consummate geek and numerous surgical instruments bear his name. He was also the first surgeon to videotape surgeries — in the 1960s. He was considered by the NEJM to be the single greatest surgeon alive until two days ago. In his career he performed over 50,000 heart surgeries and practiced medicine (though not surgery) until the day he died. In 2005 he underwent the Debakey procedure, which he pioneered, to treat the aortic dissection he suffered.”

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Roland Piquepaille writes “Japanese researchers have found a way to build long threads of DNA using miniaturized hooks and bobbins. In fact, they’ve demonstrated how to manipulate delicate DNA chains without breaking them. They’ve designed these laser-directed microdevices to pick up and manipulate individual molecules of DNA. The scientists have used optical tweezers to catch and move these microdevices, which could be used in the future to detect genetic disorders such as Down’s syndrome.” Here’s a link to the journal article.

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The New York Times reports that the White House has announced a plan which it will propose to Congress to bailout Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE). So the executives at these companies will get to keep their millions in compensation and we’ll be on the hook for their mistakes. This is the what free markets mean for this White House — private profits and socialized losses.

Here are three key terms of the deal:

  • Purchase stock and let the Treasury finance short-term needs. The U.S. will buy billions in Fannie and Freddie stock and lend to the companies to meet their short-term funding needs.
  • Provide emergency Fed funds. The Fed will provide Fannie and Freddie emergency access to its discount window as it has done already for the investment banking industry. Under this deal, the Fed will open a lending facility for Fannie and Freddie which they will access by posting their own securities as collateral.
  • Raise the national debt. The White Home will also call on Congress to raise the national debt limit — it has already risen from $5 trillion to $9.5 trillion during the current administration.

The taxpayers of America are now on the hook for $5 trillion worth of mortgages thanks to catastrophic mismanagement of the economy. Our only hope for a recovery of the danger we are taking is that government ownership of Fannie and Freddie stock will overwhelm the selling power of those who are short the stock. If Fannie and Freddie recover, the government might one day have a meaningful profit. Otherwise it is just throwing good money after bad.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also instructs management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

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During NASA’s Apollo missions to the moon, roughly 842 pounds of rocks were collected from the lunar surface. Scientific demand for the rocks has always been high, and a review board tracks and sends out hundreds of samples each year, even now, decades after the rocks were brought to Earth. They’ve provided researchers with a wealth of information about the entire solar system. From the NYTimes: “The samples have confirmed that asteroid and meteor impacts, not volcanism, created the vast majority of craters that define the Moon’s topography, while a constant barrage of meteorites, micrometeorites and radiation melted and pureed the bedrock to create the blanket of fine-grained soil and dust — known as regolith — that now cloaks the lunar surface. And knowing the ages of Moon rocks, which can be computed to within 20 million years, has enabled scientists to establish a baseline that grants them to date geologic features throughout the solar system. The surface of the Earth, one of the solar system’s youngest topographies, is constantly changing, as it is faulted, folded, shaped and reshaped by eruptions, earthquakes and erosion. By contrast, the Moon is as old as it gets.”

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sexy_flying_yoda writes “I have just graduated from 3 years doing a BSc in Mathematics in the UK and will be beginning an MSc in Astrophysics and Astronomy in September. I’ve very limited knowledge in physics, and as my new course of study is basically physics, I’m currently searching for books that will enable me to get up to speed. What books would you suggest that would help a mathematics graduate convert to a physicist?”

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The slow rolling collapse of the housing industry in this country — which the Center for Economic and Policy Research estimates could wipe out $6 trillion in housing wealth in 2008 — has gotten me to thinking about the future. Why do we even have mortgages? What would the housing industry look like without them? Is there a better way? My conclusion is that we should eliminate mortgages altogether. This will cause housing prices to drop which will make it possible for more people to purchase homes instead of living in houses that are really owned by the mortgage holders.

The reason we have mortgages is that the $10 trillion industry supporting them is powerful and self-sustaining. It fuels an enormous housing construction and furniture industry. And there are those in government who think home “ownership” is a worthy social goal. Unfortunately, when people take on a mortgage and then move into a home, the people who live there don’t have its title — the mortgage holder does. Simply put, home ownership is an illusion for most people — the mortgage holder owns the home until the mortgage is paid off. Instead of renting from a landlord, the “homeowner” is living in a house that’s owned by a mortgage holder.

With the rise of securitization, that mortgage holder is no longer the company that originated the loan. It’s an investor who holds a mortgage-backed security (MBS) that contains your mortgage and thousands of others. It’s an oft-repeated illusion that this is “home ownership.” But that illusion is critical for keeping the mortgage industry alive. Unfortunately, if Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) fail, it will be us citizens who will be on the hook for the $1 trillion needed to bail them out.

The concept of home ownership supports an industry that is now collapsing thanks to its shady business practices. In the last year, those practices have led to a 15% drop in the value of the average house, the implosion of the $1.3 trillion subprime mortgage business, $400 billion in bank write-downs related to MBS — potentially rising to $1.6 trillion, and three million foreclosures which will force them out of the home that the mortgage holder owns.

To be fair, many citizens have “profited” from mortgages in the past. They “profited” if they started paying off their mortgage when housing prices were rising, paid off the mortgage when the price of the home was higher, and then sold the home at that higher price. But in calculating their “profit”, these fortunate people should take into account the interest and fees that they paid the mortgage holder during the life of the mortgage.

As an example, consider a home bought for $200,000 in 1980 with a 20% down payment and a 30 year 8% fixed rate mortgage. Let’s assume that the price of the home appreciated to $350,000 in 2010 for a $150,000 increase. But to pay off the $160,000 mortgage, the borrower paid a total of $422,647 in principal and interest. (This is based on a monthly payment from Mortgage Calculator of $1,174.02 a month - multiplied by 360 payments over 30 years).

If you take those fees and interest into account, taking on a mortgage to “buy” a house does not look like such a good deal. It turns the $150,000 “profit” if the home is sold in year 30 into a $112,647 “loss” (due to the $262,647 you spent in interest and fees over and above the $160,000 you borrowed offsetting the $150,000 rise in the value of the home — and this loss calculation excludes your $40,000 down payment). Mortgages are like casinos — on average the house always wins.

When you consider the massive profits to the mortgage industry, our cost to bail it out of its risky business practices, the write-offs by banks that hold MBSs, and the big loss in housing wealth; I think it’s reasonable to ask whether the costs of mortgages to society exceed their benefits.

If mortgages didn’t exist at all, we would not have these problems. So I think it’s time to consider whether we have the ability to afford to let them exist in the future.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

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